Month: October 2009 Page 2 of 3

[OFF TOPIC] #BAD09: Blog Action Day on Climate Change

So here’s something new: today, on 15 October 2009, is the global Blog Action Day. This year’s iteration is targeted to raise awareness to Climate Change. I would like to use the opportunity to alert everyone to the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s appeal to fight climate change. As part of his “Time for Climate Justice” initiative, he teamed up with the good folks of Duran Duran (a mobile link after all: they were amongst the first artists with who I worked on activating mobile as a platform to enhance fan communication back in 2002!), Lily Allen, All American Rejects and countless others, etc to produce a new version of Midnight Oil’s “Beds are Burning” (it is a free and you can download from iTunes here) and produced a video to go with it. Download it, share it, watch it, act!

So, come on, overcome your fashionable cynicism, do something!

Motoblur & Android Fragmentation: The Follow-Up

Yesterday, I blogged about Motorola’s Motoblur UI, which adds an additional SDK for its specific APIs beyond the standard Android stacks. I reckoned that this might mean more fragmentation, which would push it a step closer to the nightmare that was/is J2ME.

I received two quick reactions to this: one reader commented that this was only bad if you wouldn’t have good tools and compilers. To him (@tederf), I would respond that, while it is certainly true that good tools reduce the friction, raise efficiencies and alleviate overall pain, the smallest common denominator is always just that. In my previous companies, we used to produce up to seven or eight different J2ME builds in order to maximise performance of our games on the huge spread of handsets. Could we have done with one build? Probably. Would the result have been great? Almost certainly not!

Anyway, the more interesting reaction came from the good folks at Motorola themselves. They reckoned (via Twitter; they are @motoblur) that:

with all due respect, I feel you’ve misunderstood motoblur, and android fragmentation concerns are a wee bit overblown.

Now, now. I offered them a guest post here in order to explain this further. I have unfortunately not yet had a response (which I take, applying Twitter attention spans, as lasting silence). But I still wanted to use the opportunity to elaborate a little more on this (and, no, I will not lament Moto’s lost opportunity to feature their wares on this humble site).

To clarify a couple of things outright:

  1. I would be delighted would I be mistaken (and note that I am not a techie, so this is a distinct possibility!).
  2. I would be equally delighted would Motorola manage to regain some of its lost ground. The world clearly would be a better place with another strong manufacturer regaining old strengths (although maybe with better UI this time around – which Motoblur certainly seems to offer [see picture on the right of the Motorola CLIQ!).

But let’s go back to the general issue of Android fragmentation threats (the fact that I pointed this out – again – en cas de Moto is of course purely coincidental).

So let’s dive in: with open source software, there is always the intrinsic possibility that fragmentation will occur. Why do people customize it? Because they can! vendors, developers and operators that make up the Open Handset Alliance (which releases Android) can tweak is in whichever way they like (or “need” to) and for any number of reasons: to protect IP, to optimize performance on their network or for certain devices or simply because they feel they need some distinguishing factors, some degree of uniqueness. The result can be, however, as one analyst puts it that

there will be multiple flavors of Android, all of them incompatible with each other. That, in turn, necessitates different versions of each application or updates to accommodate the entire device ecosystem. On the whole, such activity negates the cost efficiencies inherent in the idea of a standard, open operating system, and potentially makes the Android Market a confusing place to shop for widgets.

And that’s what you call fragmentation. Interestingly, there were rumours that Google had made the Open Handset Alliance members sign “non-fragmentation agreements” but it seems that this is either not true or not enforceable.

Others point out that HTC, Samsung, Dell, Verizon, (may I add Motorola?) all have phones on the way that run on different software to the others. Reports of version conflicts, lack of backward compatibility, etc, etc. I mean, hell, there is even an “alternative” Android app store (with 223 apps as of tonight)… Sounds familiar?

Dear Motoblur, if it is different with your SDK, please enlighten us! I am sure I will not be the only one applauding!

Image Credit: http://www.visionmobile.com

Carnival of the Mobilists # 195

Chetan Sharma’s blog Always On Real-Time Access is this week’s host for the Carnival of the Mobilists. This week’s edition features posts looking at mobile and social networking, mobile application development, 5 reasons why mobile VoIP has (so far?) failed, another iteration looking into the shortfalls of mobile advertising to date, a presentation on concepts and technologies behind real-time demand data, and last but not least – for all of us who weren’t there – a CTIA round-up. Lots of goodies, so go read it here.

More Fragmentation: Android & Motorola’s Motoblur

A new round of fragmentation looms. It is something I have been fearing for a while now: that OEM (and carriers) would make use of the open source of the likes of Android and LiMo to produce their very own flavour of apps. So after Vodafone’s 360 announcement (with customized LiMo storefronts, etc), Motorola announced so-called “signature apps” from a number of developers that are all delivered through Motorola’s new “Motoblur” user interface, which

is based on the Google-backed Android platform for mobile systems. Motorola [will] offer an additional SDK for its APIs beyond what is available for Android.

And then it said that

Over a period of time–we’re not there yet–we’ll allow the APIs to be available so people can develop many more applications than we can think of ourselves, but it’ll take us a little bit of time to mature ourselves to a place that we could open up APIs.

Ouch. An additional SDK. Which is not yet there yet. Whilst the Motoblur UI looks actually quite nice, this sounds suspiciously like another round of walled gardens, onerous internal and external QA, fragmentation and pretty much a fall back into the traps of the J2ME uber-customized world where one needs to support hundreds of devices for a commercial roll-out (with the trouble of course being that, all too often, that work meant that it would no longer be commercially very sensible). Oh dear…

It makes one want to call out for a quick advancement of HTML5 with Gears and all, so that one won’t need apps after all. The issue of connectivity and usability, etc would of course still be there. Such despair…

Global Telecoms and Broadband Stats: Mobile Broadband outstrips Fixed-Line

The United Nations’ agency for telecoms, ITU, has released a set of numbers on mobile and broadband penetration globally. There have been many times more mobile phones than fixed-line telephones on the planet for a while now but now this also applies to broadband connections: by the end of 2009, the ITU expects 600m mobile broadband subscriptions globally compared to only 500m for fixed-line equivalents.

This is not to say that all is good already. The divide between the so-called first and third worlds is immense: the broadband penetration in Europe is 20%, in Africa only 0.1%. And it is the latter where the exponential further growth of mobile (telephony and broadband) will lie then: the competition mobile networks have from fixed lines is much lower in territories with less legacy networks built. And in rural parts of Africa (and elsewhere), the cost of putting up the respective infrastructure makes the installation of fixed line networks simply untenable.

The cost of ICT spend represent a whopping 41% of an African average monthly income. In the Americas (average of North and South), this is c. 7% and in Europe just over 1%.

Here’s some other bits from the ITU’s facts and figures:

  • 4.6bn estimated mobile subscribers by end of 2009.
  • 25% of the world’s population uses the Internet.
  • China has overtaken the US as the country with the biggest broadband subscriber base (but still has “only” 6.2% penetration rate on a subscription (as opposed to household) basis.
  • Of the world’s population (6.9bn), 70.8% (or 4.9bn) have access to a TV at home (not equal to number of TV sets) and 27.3% (1.9bn) have access to a PC at home. By number of households, this looks as follows: 1.7bn households globally, 1.3bn of which have a TV and 600m a PC. The gap is expected to narrow quickly due to declining prices and ongoing convergence.
  • The US accounts for 82.6% of all mobile broadband subscriptions in the Americas (North and South). In Asia and the Pacific, 70% of such subscriptions are in Japan and South Korea.
  • The top 5 most highly developed ICT economies (listen up, Mr Scoble) are:
  1. Sweden,
  2. South Korea,
  3. Denmark,
  4. Netherlands, and
  5. Iceland

Japan ranks on # 12, the US ranks on # 17, Canada on # 19 and Russia on # 50.

The ITU provides some reports as downloads: The World in 2009 [PDF] as well as a  statistical profile on the state of the information society in Africa [PDF].

Enter One-Click on Mobile – Amazon & Handmark

Here’s a nice deal: smartphone content specialist Handmark integrates Amazon’s new mobile payments service into its mobile content stores. This includes, most notably, also the famed (and sometimes damned) 1-Click functionality whereby users can (just like on iTunes; Apple licenses the 1-Click patent) buy content with just one click. The store will then use whichever credit card they have previously entered. To mobile users, bruised and tired of multiple clicks and onerous navigation to purchase a single piece of content, this is a true piece of added value (and one that was often hailed on Apple’s benchmark app store).

From what I can see, Apple still leads in the fewest number of clicks but Amazon’s offering comes relatively close. Amazon’s service seems to offer a wider range of functions though: a user can pay, reserve, settle, run refunds, cancel, etc, etc, and, last but not least, a fairly established and recognized dispute resolution system, all through the Amazon API. Rather neat indeed! The transaction fees then are a dream for every mobile content provider: in the ranges customary for mobile content ($0.99-9.99), the fees range from 1.5%+$0.01 for Amazon Payments balance transfers to 5%+$0.05 for credit card payments. This, dear carriers, equates to a revenue share to the provider of 90-95%!

We will arguably see a whole range of app store providers taking this model up, in particular amongst those without a prior billing relationship. Carriers might be tempted to license the model, too, in order to facilitate the order flow (although I doubt that they will adapt the revenue shares, too): I would be surprised if Amazon could not adapt the back-end to integrate with a carrier’s billing module (although those commercial discussions would surely be interesting…).

It is a compelling case of transferring an existing brand with proven ease of use to the mobile web (where it will thrive first) and app stores the world over.

Unsung Heroes – SendMe Mobile Looks at $150m revenues!

With smart phones, app stores and the likes being all the hype, some of the commercially more successful mobile entertainment companies over the past several years tend to be, well, maybe not forgotten but dropping out of the limelight. I am talking about direct-to-consumer (D2C) providers.

Mobile D2C has been a much-maligned segment: Jamba/Jamster (now Fox Mobile), Zed, Buongiorno (or rather its Blinko consumer brand), Thumbplay, Playphone, and then the ones that have been gobbled up by competitors or fallen by the wayside over time such as Movilisto, Jippii, Monstermob, I-Touch, etc, etc. And the bad name was, at times, fully justified. Various subscription scandals, resulting class actions, general discomfort by consumers on how to handle this new type of service offering (and how to get rid of it again), they’ve had it all.

But what they also have is a real business. Just about the only awe-inspiring numbers the mobile content space has seen came from D2C players: whereas numbers are – as usual – a little hard to come by, Zed had previously been reporting monster revenues, Thumbplay is said to be the US market leader and grew from 2007 to 2008 by a cool 275%, Jamba was past the $600m mark already back in 2005 (I do not have more current numbers).

There are companies however that tower over much, much better known mobile entertainment companies but largely escape the hype, and one of them is SendMe Mobile. Their founder & CEO Russ Klein recently revealed the company’s revenues, which are a not too shabby $10m — per month — and looking to ramp up for a cool $150m p.a. by the end of this year! So Russ’ company, which was founded only in 2006 and which deals with the relatively mundane end of mobile content outsells probably the vast majority of mobile entertainment firms on the planet. So who has heard of them? Many, many of their customers, I suppose.

SendMe has raised around $35m in venture capital to get here and doesn’t expect to needing anymore. SendMe also runs a mobile social community (MBuzzy) and has a reverse-auction service (SoLow). And that’s it. Easy, huh? I tip my hat, Mr Klein!

Page 2 of 3

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén