This should have come a week earlier but, alas, I was on the road – quite literally – en route to San Diego and Qualcomm’s most excellent Uplinq conference.
Life of course did not stop, and amongst the things you should not miss was (and is!) the last iteration of the formidable Carnival of the Mobilists, hosted by our very own Peggy Anne Salz on her award-winning MSearchGroove blog. Amongst the gems not to be missed were:
- An interview of a company focused on Windows Phone 7 (yes, you read that right!);
- Tomi Ahonen with another go at the app economy (which he claims isn’t much of an economy; read my comments on this here);
- A look on web bookmarks as an alternative to apps (to which I still not agree; cf. here);
- A couple of posts on Android, and specifically Motorola’s Droid X (and the future, if any, of Motoblur);
- And many, many more…
Finally, my post on Vodafone’s pondered changes to its revenue share structures featured, too.
The carnival is here, and well worth a read! And, again, my apologies for the late posting of this. But the old Highway 101 along the Pacific just had me in its grips… 
On 17 June, a wonderful conference opens its doors: organized by the formidable Rudy de Waele and his team, the beautiful city of Barcelona (but without the usual Mobile World Congress stress and with better weather than in February!) is host to Mobile 2.0 Europe.
You will find a great line-up of speakers from across the mobile ecosystem, which should allow for a wonderfully balanced overview of what’s going on. The organizers have lined up senior guys from the giants of the industry, such as:
- Nokia
- RIM
- Vodafone
- Opera
- Telefonica
- Orange
- PayPal Mobile
- Microsoft
But they then coupled them with the nimble and agile guys like us, so you will also find:
- Distimo (analytics)
- Scoreloop (yes, I will be speaking)
- The Astonishing Tribe (UI experts)
- W3C
- Future Platforms
- and more…
As if this wasn’t enough, the AppCircus will also stop at the event with an on-stage show of the best and brightest apps around.
Join us, it should be tremendous fun! The registration page is here.
Gartner published the latest smartphone numbers for Q1/2010 (or so I read), and it is testament to the continuing rise of this segment: sales increased by nearly 50% year-on-year (and do remember that there was this recession-thing last year). Total sales were 54.3m units in the first quarter of this year. Not too shabby!
On the OS side, the rising stars are Android (9.6% global market share from 1.6% a year ago), which is now bigger then Windows Mobile (and it took it only a year!) and iPhone (15.4% vs 10.5% in Q1/2009). The silverback gorilla still is Symbian which dropped to 44.3% from 48.8%. Blackberry is also down (albeit only slightly: 19.4% from 20.6%).
Here’s a table:
We said it before: mobile is the biggest mass medium on the planet, and now game developers (and not only the sometime masochists that have been there for years) flog to it. According to a fairly large survey by GDR (which can be yours for too many dollars to count and has been reported about here) among 800 developers, a quarter of them are now making games for mobile phones with most of them (namely 75%) – surprise, surprise – choosing the iPhone as their platform of launch. This is doubling last year’s figures (apparently).
The iPhone and its non-phone sibling, iPod Touch (and you have been reading that a year ago here, here and here) are proving a more attractive launchpad onto portable gaming platforms than dedicated gaming systems like the Nintendo DS and Sony PSP.
The reasons will be the same as they were a year ago: a platform that is relatively easy to work to and a simple distribution model. With the number of downloads Apple continues to pile up, it is no wonder that developers from “traditional” platforms (PC downloadable, online, etc) are attracted to that. They will also be less scared of the marketing challenges since they had had to market their games in the whole wide oceans of the Internet previously (i.e. there were no carrier safe havens with feature slots). Whilst this does not mean that every traditional developer’s games will be successful on the app store, the threshold to enter is lower.
It will be interesting to see if the wave will roll further into other “smarter” platforms, including Android, Windows Mobile (see the latest rumours for WinME 7, including full Xbox Live gaming implementation here), Symbian Maemo and Blackberry. With the device numbers clearly speaking in favour of that, platforms becoming more accessible and, last but not least, with easier paths to the users via OEM app stores, this is to be expected. Good times for mobile gamers!
First, Samsung announced it would drop Symbian from its smartphones in 2010 in favour of its new, home-brew bada OS. Then Nokia said it would drop Symbian (albeit not immediately) from its flagship N-series devices replacing it with Maemo, the OS that premiered on a Nokia device on the recently released geek dream, the N900.
It is said that there are
no current plans for Maemo devices in the [...] X-Series range or the popular [?] E-Series enterprise range
but the word “current” suggests that this might well change soon, too.
This would leave Symbian without its two largest OEM supporters. Will there still be a future for it?
Symbian of course boasts a still very impressive number of legacy devices, and it will therefore be here for a while. However, what does the long-term outlook look like? Android, LiMo, etc all “boast” a nimbler, more agile set-up, allowing for faster development and, arguably, better user experience. This is not necessarily Symbian’s fault (it carries with it its legacy around) but it makes it that much harder for it to reinvent itself.
I am not sure if there is place (and – timewise – the runway) to reinvent itself without the backing of big OEMs. I would be surprised if carriers would use it; they – even more than OEM – require adaptability and customization, which the newer platforms seem better suited to serve. Vodafone’s choice of LiMo for their first two Vodafone 360 devices is testament to that.
The ever-bright Tomi Ahonen suggested a comparison with DOS/Windows and MacOS: he compares Symbian to DOS, Maemo to Windows and iPhone to MacOS: MacOS led in UI and leads to this day. DOS outsold MacOS in spite of its dramatic inferiority because of the legacy instal base. Windows then overlaid DOS and rolled out on all the legacy devices with MacOS, as a result, always playing second fiddle despite its superiority.
The market place in mobile looks different though: DOS was nigh dominant (outside the mainframe and large enterprise side of things) whereas Symbian “only” covers about 5% of the current market. It is big but probably not big enough to bridge the DOS/Windows migration gap. With Android, Blackberry, Windows Mobile, LiMo, JavaFX (if that ever takes of properly), etc all on the map, too, the situation is very different to the DOS/Windows/MacOS world. Would Nokia be quicker in execution, I might still look at it differently but, unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be that way.
So is it good bye, Symbian, then?
In the last two days, two forecasts informed us about the value of the mobile app market in – convenient as ever – the distant future that is 2013. US analyst firm Yankee Group predicts the US app mobile market to be worth $4.2bn by then. Today, British analyst Wireless Expertise (run by former Netsize exec Anuj Kanna) topped this easily by predicting the (global) app market size to be $16.6bn by that time (free copy of the report here).
I can hear your moans…
However, let’s have a look at the numbers then, shall we? At the end of 2008, there were 4.1bn mobile phones in the market. Because apps tend to thrive most on smartphones (and the analysts seem to thrive on them, too), let’s have a look at that sub-sector. I would estimate the smartphone share to being somewhat under 10% (Symbian claims c. 250m devices in market, Apple has some 30-odd million, so RIM, Windows Mobile, Android, Palm, etc should probably be OK with the balance of some 100m). In Europe and the US, the share is much larger but in the big volume markets China and India it is bound to be much smaller, at least for the time being. Global smartphone shipments in 2008 were around 140m.
If we estimate a 20% growth year-on-year for smartphones (vs. 5% for the overall phone market, which seems to be loosely in line with the general dynamic), then we would end up with something like 900m smartphones by 2013. Yankee Group predicts that smartphones in the US will quadruple by then (from 40m to 160m) and does not seem to be very far off. Wireless Expertise thinks the global number will be 1.6bn, which again, might not be that far off.
The question is however if people will really download this much stuff: Yankee Group predicts that the actual value of the market will rise 10-fold and that the average price point of an app will be $2.37. Why that is so, you ask? Well, pay $495 and you will know; I don’t…
Now, the good folks of Wireless Expertise see the thing quadrupling until 2013. They do, however, count “ordinary” mobile games as they are being sold through carriers amongst the apps, which means that their starting point is higher, namely $4.6bn in 2009, so they’re looking at this quadrupling. They raise some smart points on app stores and how they (well, it) changed the way users access and consume content, how carriers will need to look for alternatives to increasingly commoditized voice and messaging propositions, etc. But why there should be a 400% rise in e.g. traditional J2ME mobile games remains – whilst it would be wonderful – pretty much in the dark.
Talking of J2ME and feature phones: I do not know how they are being woven into the equation but there would certainly be a wide field for any self-respecting crystal-ball-reader here: on the one hand, app consumption on such devices has traditionally been fairly shabby but, on the other hand, this could well change if connectivity, bandwidth, UI and the right price plans would come together to offer a compelling mobile web solution. So then apps would need to be translated into widgets or something like that. Would users then pay for them? Don’t know. Or would it be the “Freemium” model according to which “Free gets you to a place where you can ask to paid?”
The challenge of these reports is their “simplified” assumptions: if only one of them fails, you go “oops”, and your prediction is halved (or worse). On Wireless Expertise’s case, this is particularly clear: their assumption is that there will be a dual strategy of (presumably OEM-driven app stores) and mobile web-based widget stores. Now, they further assume that Ovi, Windows Market, etc will all be as successful as Apple’s App Store. By early (anecdotal) data, this could not be further from the truth (see here for what that may mean). Nokia in particular struggles to get its head around a viable and compelling media strategy (cf. here and here). And hence the beautiful hockey stick would actually fall flat on its face.
Now, I am not predicting total doom and gloom, in the contrary. I do think that Apple’s wake-up call has brought a much-needed new wave of innovation and I also believe that this will be successfully incorporated by some carriers and OEMs. But by all of them? Not very likely.
And so we see: the reports are a touch on the optimistic side when it comes to volumes and assumptions. But, hey, that’s their job, I guess, and after all they have at least dropped their masks now: Yankee Group call it fairly openly a “gold rush”. And what happens then we had been shown a long time ago: you end up eating your shoelaces. So maybe this is less of an app bonanza and more of an analyst bonanza then…
Samsung’s new app store (no one can do without one these days!) will be operated by Handmark and is set to go live on 14 September (2009, that is), I read. The respective site is (sort of) live and appears to accept registrations of prospective vendors. Go here if you feel like it… Launch will be in the UK, France and Italy first. No word when the others follow.
According to the press release, the content available will consist of Windows Mobile and Symbian s60 titles and will be available on the Omnia, I8910HD, Omnia II and Omnia Lite (so a true omni-store then). Billing is available via both credit cards and operator billing, which is – on the face of it – good (i.e. plain and simple credit card-billing doesn’t often work; Apple’s app store is an exception, I’d say, because input is via iTunes with which people are already familiar).
I’ll spare you the rest of the lyrical odes to the various partners… But let’s try and break this down: how big will this thing then be? Samsung is a force in mobile and its Omnia phones have had some very significant success indeed: in some markets (Germany was one), the Omnia outsold the iPhone by some margin (in December 2008, the Omnia had a 14.9% share of the German smartphone market compared to the iPhone 3G with 7.6%). It also launches in India now. I could not get my hands on solid sales numbers though (in the top 10 list by accessory sales for June, the Omnia came in on #10)… However, anecdotally, it is behind Nokia, RIM and Apple in global smartphone market share. So if we say that, on a global basis, there will be about the same number of devices around, that would make the phones a good success for Samsung.
However, when it comes to usage, I am not sure if the Omnia can compete with the iPhone. If we take ad impressions as an indicator (and it really is just that), we’ve seen that the iPhone’s 8% market share translates into 40% ad impressions. And because a lot of apps (and web “apps”) use ads, I think it is probably safe to assume that usage is higher. And this is arguably the crux of app successes: they need to be available but they also need to be discoverable and usable, and all of this with a lot of ease. Will they succeed? I hope so as it would do a ton of good to the industry would there be more than the niche player Apple. Their new TouchWiz SDK (see here) should help ease development for better UI, and the features of the store they announced look decent so far, so let’s keep our fingers crossed!
Image credit: GSM Arena
I know this is a contentious headline but one could interpret the news that Qualcomm is opening its very own app store (which is probably the oldest one!) to any device on any platform on any carrier this way. The provider will open its Plaza service to non-BREW devices (BREW is proprietary to Qualcomm). This could be seen as an admission of defeat in the platform war, which it appears to be losing against GSM platforms.
Microsoft has a central market place for Windows Mobile applications in the making. It is the latest (and maybe the last) of the big smartphone platform makers to come forth with such a model. And – with a probably already somewhat reflexive jab to its Cupertino nemesis (yes, Mr Gates’ children are not allowed iPods), it vowed to be more open to outside software developers.
World market leader Nokia had a bruising 2008, at least in the smartphone field. According to a study, the Finns’ market share in this segment dropped by 10% to a – well – still fairly respectable 40.8% in Q4/2008 (as compared to 50.9% a for the quarter in the previous year). Painful!
Worldwide: Smartphone Sales to End Users by Vendor
(Thousands of Units)
| Company | 4Q08 Sales | Market Share4Q08 (%) | 4Q07 Sales | Market Share4Q07 (%) | 4Q07-4Q08 Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nokia | 15,561.7 | 40.8% | 18,703.3 | 50.9% | -16.8% |
| RIM | 7,442.6 | 19.5% | 4,024.7 | 10.9% | 84.9% |
| Apple | 4,079.4 | 10.7% | 1,928.3 | 5.2% | 111.6% |
| HTC | 1,631.7 | 4.3% | 1,361.1 | 3.7% | 19.9% |
| Samsung | 1,598.2 | 4.2% | 671.5 | 1.8% | 138.0% |
| Others | 7,829.7 | 20.5% | 10,077.3 | 27.4% | -22.3% |
| Total | 38,143.3 | 100% | 36,766.1 | 100% | 3.7% |
Worldwide: Smartphone Sales to End Users by Vendor, 2008
| Company | 2008 Sales | Market Share 2008 | 2007 Sales | Market Share 2007 | Growth 2007-2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nokia | 60,920.5 | 43.7% | 60,465.0 | 49.4% | 0.8% |
| RIM | 23,149.0 | 16.6% | 11,767.7 | 9.6% | 96.7% |
| Apple | 11,417.5 | 8.2% | 3,302.6 | 2.7% | 245.7% |
| HTC | 5,895.4 | 4.2% | 3,718.5 | 3.0% | 58.5% |
| Sharp | 5,234.2 | 3.8% | 6,885.3 | 5.6% | -24.0% |
| Others | 32,671.4 | 23.5% | 36,176.6 | 29.6% | -9.7% |
| Total | 139,287.9 | 100% | 122,315.6 | 100% | 13.9% |
Worldwide: Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System, 4Q08
| Company | 4Q08 Sales | Market Share 4Q08 | 4Q07 Sales | Market Share 4Q07 | Growth 4Q07-4Q08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symbian | 17,949.1 | 47.1% | 22,902.5 | 62.3% | -21.6% |
| RIM | 7,442.6 | 19.5% | 4,024.7 | 10.9% | 84.9% |
| Windows Mobile | 4,713.9 | 12.4% | 4,374.4 | 11.9% | 7.8% |
| Mac OS X | 4,079.4 | 10.7% | 1,928.3 | 5.2% | 111.6% |
| Linux | 3,194.9 | 8.4% | 2,675.9 | 7.3% | 19.4% |
| Palm OS | 326.5 | 0.9% | 449.1 | 1.2% | -27.3% |
| Other OSs | 436.9 | 1.1% | 411.3 | 1.1% | 6.2% |
| Total | 38,143.3 | 100% | 36,766.1 | 100% | 3.7% |
Note: The “Other OSs” category includes sales of Sharp Sidekick devices based on the Danger platform.
Worldwide: Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System, 2008
| Company | 2008 Sales | Market Share 2008 | 2007 Sales | Market Share 2007 | Growth 2007-2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symbian | 72,933.5 | 52.4% | 77,684.0 | 63.5% | -6.1% |
| RIM | 23,149.0 | 16.6% | 11,767.7 | 9.6% | 96.7% |
| Windows Mobile | 16,498.1 | 11.8% | 14,698.0 | 12.0% | 12.2% |
| Mac OS X | 11,417.5 | 8.2% | 3,302.6 | 2.7% | 245.7% |
| Linux | 11,262.9 | 8.1% | 11,756.7 | 9.6% | -4.2% |
| Palm OS | 2,507.2 | 1.8% | 1,762.7 | 1.4% | 42.2% |
| Other OSs | 1,519.7 | 1.1% | 1,344.0 | 1.1% | 13.1% |
| Total | 139,287.9 | 100% | 122,315.6 | 100% | 13.9% |
Note: The “Other OSs” category includes sales of Sharp Sidekick devices based on the Danger platform.
The iPhone has a meagre 1.2% share of the overall phone market. However, it has true worker bees as users. No, honestly, these guys are sooo much busier than everybody else: they produce a whopping 2/3 of the world’s mobile web traffic, or so says a report. Yes, that’s right. Number 2? Shared between open-source-newbie Symbian and – remarkably – Android with 6.15% each, which is, erm, less than 10% of what the iPhone accounts for (and in spite there being a gazillion more Symbian-powered phones out there than iPhones). Next one in the queue then is Blackberry with 2.24%.
Smartphone content vendor Handango releases a smartphone “yardstick” every year containing the top sellers from data in their store. Anecdotally, smartphone apps are more often sold via direct stores (rather than operator decks) than “normal” (not smart?) phones, owing of course to the better connectability (not necessarily connectivity) of high-end phones: input mechanisms (Querty, touchscreen, better D-pads), almost always 3G phones, etc make for a more satisfying user experience (try inputting a web URL via a basic phone keypad… painful!).
1. Spb Mobile Shell 2.1.4 (today screen plug-in) – $29.95
2. MobiTV (streaming television) – $9.99/month
3. Ringtone Megaplex (ringtones) – $19.95
4. Spb Backup 2.0.1 (file backup) – $24.95
5. Spb Pocket Plus 4.0.2 (today screen plug-in) – $29.95
6. Pocket Informant 8 (today screen plug-in) – $29.95
7. Spb Phone Suite 1.3 (phone features) – $19.95
8. VoiceControl (voice command) – $6.00
9. Colour Your Trackball (trackball customizer) – $4.95
10. eWallet (Professional Edition) (PIM manager) – $29.95
1. Spb Brain Evolution 1.2 (puzzle game)And here’s a chart of the game categories – and, no, still no first-person-shooters in the top 10:
2. Aces Texas Hold’em® – No Limit (card game)
3. TETRIS (puzzle game)
4. Guitar Hero 3 Mobile (music game)
5. Bejeweled (puzzle game)
6. Aces Solitaire Pack (card game)
7. The Sims 2 (strategy game)
8. Jewelrumble 2 (puzzle game)9. Sudoku Puzzle Pack (puzzle game)
10. Solitaire Buddy Gold (card game)
