Month: July 2009 Page 3 of 4

When Mobile Advertising Does NOT work

On 13/07/2009

In 1

I have just been killing time and played a game on my iPhone. A free one. One with little ads at the bottom, mainly asking you to download all sorts of apps and games. Powered by Admob. And what do I get? An ad in Dutch asking me to download Skype. Then one in French offering me a free game. To make it clear: I am in the UK and had been playing on a UK-sourced iPhone with an O2 UK SIM card. I am a foreigner in this country but I am neither Dutch nor French; in fact, neither the Dutch nor the French usually like to be thrown into one pot with Germans… ;-).

Does anyone really think that this will work? And, moreover: what are ad “impressions” really worth when they only quite literally display, well, random stuff rather than ads people can also understand (for those unaware: being able to say “merci” with an even remotely foreign-sounding accent is considered a major linguistic accomplishment in this country)? In this context, AdMob’s recently reported numbers might be queried, I guess…

If advertising is to serve as a working alternative business model to paid downloads, then it is absolutely mandatory that advertising networks get their back-ends right. Depending on the ad model, simple ad fill might be enough for a publisher (if they are being paid by impressions; ECPM) but not if they are paid by click (CPC) but impressions of Dutch ads to Germans in the UK surely do not impress advertisers who are, after all, footing the bill!

I don’t know if this was a small glitch in AdMob’s systems or is more widely spread but I do hope it is the former.

The New Mobile Apps: Head in the Cloud!?

By Volker

On 12/07/2009

In 1

Everyone with an iPhone will by now have seen and “played” them: the first generation of multi-player games where most of the computing is done in the cloud, relieving the handset from such labourious tasks. This, according to new report, will soon (well, by 2014) be the norm and will in fact erase downloadable apps (games and other) as we know them today.

The huge advantage of this approach is that it would largely do away with the fragmentation nightmare of the handset market: multiple operating systems, a plethora of screen sizes, all sorts of “interesting” middle-ware solution imposed by either carriers (Sprint anyone?) or OEM to “tweak” an OS to their specs, with the sole result of making things even more cumbersome for developers. It is one reason why the Apple iPhone ecosystem thrives as it does: one OS, one model, one distribution channel, worldwide deployment. If the heavy-lifting is done in the cloud rather than on the handset, one can – presumably – do away with less complex front-ends reducing the work necessary to port the app to various handsets (and, no, please do not choose iMob as the benchmark!). Coding for the cloud would resemble web development rather than today’s mass market application development with armies of post-production and QA engineers filling offices (and overall development costs).

Another, easily overlooked, advantage is battery life: the more (and more complex) processes are computed on the phone hardware, the more the device will consume of the precious and scarce juice; battery life is better with cloud computing!

The obvious downside of mobile cloud computing is a blue sky: no cloud, no app. In posh tech lingo: intermittent network availability, which is to say that the app won’t work if you have no coverage (so no displacing downloadable apps in Oklahoma or on the Scottish isles then…). The aforementioned report suggests HTML 5 and its more sophisticated caching options as the solutions but I am fairly skeptical in that respect: you will not bring about the “unprecedented” sophistication with a little bit of cached data.

Anyway, the more likely scenario is an abundance of network availability by 2014 anyway: by then, large parts of our computing will be done over the air and LTE (and further evolved) networks will surely rule good parts of the world.

So, will it work? The report points out iPhone apps for the likes of Amazon, eBay, etc and, yes, for such apps I am sure it will work: they basically extend a front-end of a web service to a mobile device. The “app” is basically a client that facilitates input and serves as a crutch for the smaller screen where it is necessary to optimise the available data so as not to overburden the little available space with non-core information.

Will it work for more complex apps, in particular games? It will depend. On what? On the type of game of course! How many online racing games do you know? I mean really good ones. None? Ah… Why is that? Because not even the abundance of bandwidth and computing power available today gets to a game experience even close to the 50+ frames per second that the top iPhone racing games can do today (check out Firemint’s Real Racing!). The experience on next-gen consoles is even more astonishing. Need for Speed: Under Cover on XBox 360 or PS3? Woah! All these games require very serious hardware acceleration to convert the high-end graphics into smooth, fast, flowing action. And broadband networks aren’t good enough for that. Period.

For other games, turn-based card games, board games, the Sims, or indeed full-blown MMO, this is another story. These games may require a lot of data but the speed is not as important for good gameplay. So for this group (which is arguably the larger one), cloud computing will probably be the way forward. The opportunity exists in particular (and will be largely sufficient) for all “serious” business applications: these feed for the most part off server-side data sets already and a light mobile client (or browser?) is all they need to provide serious productivity boosts to the corporate world.

So will these run in a (mobile-optimised) browser or via (lighter) downloadable front-end apps? Due to the constraints of the small screen, I believe it will remain very beneficial to the UI and playability to have a specific front-end (and core graphics and processes) on your handset because it will optimise the user experience on a mobile device. To keep this bit as generic and light will be key. Otherwise, it would be porting hell all over again.

But we’ll get there! Just watch out!

AdMob on iPhone ad impressions and why Andrew Bud is wrong

By Volker

On 10/07/2009

In 1, Apple, OEM

Mobile advertising firm AdMob has released some numbers on ad impressions on iPhone vs other smart phones and the result is, well, that Apple is basically a 50kg flyweight boxer competing against Sumo wrestlers 5 times it weight (8% smartphone footprint but more than 40% ad impression share).

Now, very (!) crudely put, this does not mean that it is 8 times as successful on mobile advertising. It does mean however that users are 8 times more likely to use applications where ads are being displayed. Here’s some of their stats:

iPhone Apps (in AdMob’s network):

The top iPhone apps had more than one million users in the UK in May 2009
5% of iPhone apps had more than 100,000 active users in May 2009
14% of iPhone apps had between 10,000 – 100,000 active users in May 2009
27% of iPhone apps had between 1,000 – 10,000 active users in May 2009

Mobile web browsing market in May 2009:

UK:

48.7% of ad requests came from Apple handsets (iPhone and iPod Touch)
28.4% of ad requests came from the iPhone
282,493,761 ad requests from users in the UK

US:

45.1% of ad requests came from Apple handsets
25.7% of ad requests came from the iPhone
3,804,373,544 ad requests from users in the US

Global:

31.4% of ad requests came from Apple handsets
18.6% of ad requests came from the iPhone
7,997,946,483 ad requests from users around the world

Interestingly, MEF and MBlox Chairman Andrew Bud (who is being quoted at the end of the article) said that Apple’s app store compared to Nokia’s Ovi Store like a niche boutique to Tesco (or, if you are in the US, Walmart). Is that so? No it is not. And here’s why:

Apple is a boutique with more items on sale than a Tesco megastore. And its (less) customers buy trolleys full of wares. Moreover, their high-spending customers leave the store with a spring in their step and committed to come back the next day.

Nokia is a super-store with gazillion potential (!) customers where 1 in 20 stroll through aisles stocked with not so cool things and most of them walk out without buying anything and, on top of that, feeling fairly downtrodden and frustrated about what was on offer.

So, for the time being, I’d choose the Apple boutique. If that choice changes will depend on whether Nokia will manage to stock their shelves with more compelling wares and improve on their tills (less queuing, more bang for your buck, etc). Oh, and get those cold strip-lights replaced, please!

Vodafone Germany’s “Generation Upload” or the Importance of Walking the Talk

By Volker

On 10/07/2009

In 1

Here’s a tale of the brave new world of the web, the collaborative, open, participatory one. It starts harmlessly. Vodafone Germany did something new: a new image, a new target group, a new PR format… The formal pointer was the full integration of Arcor, which it took over about a year ago.

There was more to it though, on the image side. Now, Vodafone did its homework (or so it thought) and thought of something fairly revolutionary: it announced its new initiative in a “Live PK” where they allowed everyone (!) to contribute comments via web (as they said: “contribute, ask!” (as an aside: PK is to stand for “press conference”; they may have overlooked the fact that the abbreviation is [was?] also used to describe a runny form of stool). Anyhow, lots of puns possible but let’s move on as it would otherwise unduly overshadow the fairly impressive way with which the story unfolds:

Now, a little bit of background:

Vodafone announced in good German their latest campaign aimed at “Generation Upload”. This is, so they tell us in a blog (!) entry, the opposite of the only consuming download generation. Download was yesterday. Now is the Upload folks who “is full of energy”, “do not let themselves be constrained by conventions” and “lets everyone else participate in their excitement”. “It uses communication technologies not as a means in itself” (did anyone ever?) but as “a tool for realizing their own dreams” (or something like that; there was a lot more of PR blurb of course; German version here).

But then it came: “With Vodafone this generation wins a partner that provides the tools for this.”

Ah. Do they now? Well… What was your data tariff? €35 per month you say? Um…

And so disaster struck – somewhat… The invitation to contribute and ask led to 2,100 (!) comments during the press conference alone, way too much to handle of course. Also, it transpired that the Vodafone data pricing might not actually be fully in sync with the message it wanted to communicate, namely that the uploaders are being appropriately embraced by Vodafone (a partner… tools…).

But then came the somewhat revolutionary bit: today, in a blog post (and when did any carrier ever announce something like this via a blog?) they a) admitted having misjudged the whole thing and b) promised to work on their tariff structures: “if we really want to become the partner of the upload generation, then we must provide the respective tools in terms of hardware and rates. We will be measured by this.”

This, for a carrier, is revolutionary indeed. And it is a sign that they might actually have “got it”. The web as it has emerged is a different one, simpler but also infinitely more complex. Be sincere, be transparent, be honest. In the new digital society, attempts to cover mistakes up by misguided PR-BS almost certainly fail. They seem to have understood that. Will they act on it? Ah, brave new world!

Vodafone: hats off to you!!! And now: deliver… 😉

Greg Ballard gets unglu’ed

By Volker

On 09/07/2009

In 1

Now, I am rarely (ever?) writing about personnel changes but this one probably deserves a note: Greg Ballard, Glu Mobile‘s CEO, is stepping down.

Here’s a man (and a company) on whom many in the sector have an opinion: Ballard leaves a lot of burned cash, big losses, huge inflation of license fees offered to rights owners, etc, etc. The comments on some blogs are not all complementary However, this is also the man (and the company) that went from what many perceived as an ailing publisher (back then when they were Sorrent) that bought other ailing publishers (first Macrospace, then iFone), were in the ropes a couple of times (ahead of their IPO, late last year) and yet so far always managed to pull through. And not only that: coming from a contested group of publishers that fought for the #3 behind EA Mobile and Gameloft, Glu now is firmly occupying that spot.

Is it healthy? Not (yet?). Is it all good? Is it to stay? That’s a tough question and I would need to gaze into a crystal ball I do not possess. Glu had started to pull back on cost (anecdotally, they “re-sized” fairly significantly; Hong Kong sea-front office closed, posh London location shrunk, …). As per their CFO, “the company remains committed to being cash flow positive from operations during FY09”. There you have it.

Anyway, I wish Greg well!

Top 10 Mobile Phones in June 2009

By Volker

On 09/07/2009

In 1, Apple, OEM

Here’s our monthly update on the best-selling phones as derived from accessory sales by Swedish company Krusell. They seem to be having a new product line: the iPhone shows up now (and as a “new entry” no less). It is arguably to show the limited value of this table in terms of overall sales.

It is noteworthy that June’s #1 phone (Nokia 6300) is a handset that was introduced to the market more than 2 years ago. Now it is a very solid performer (as my wife will tell you) and has been used as a very good-value phone (£0.00 when bought on a pay-as-you-go) by a lot of carrier. Or is it that the phone is now so shabby it needs to be covered by a plush holster? :p

I thought it is also noteworthy that Nokia’s new flagship the N97 (or any other N-series Nokia) is not featuring at all… It might be early days for the N97 but the others?

Well, make of it what you will, here’s the top 10 list (oh, wait, it’s a top 11 this month; woah):

1. (3) Nokia 6300
2. (-) Apple iphone 3G
3. (-) HTC Touch Diamond 2
4. (2) Nokia 3109
5. (-) Nokia E51
6. (1) Nokia 5800
7. (5) Nokia E71
8. (6) HTC Touch HD
9. (-) HTC Magic
10. (-)HTC Touch Pro2
11. (4) Samsung SGH-i900/i910 Omnia
() = Last month’s position.

AR: the next acronym to watch out for?

By Volker

On 06/07/2009

In 1

AR stands for Augmented Reality and it is one of the dreams of game developers: merge the virtual and real worlds in a game and explore new horizons. This has been a pretty futuristic feature until recently: shown off at trade shows but never really seeing the (commercial) limelight. And even in the brave new world of the iPhone, it doesn’t fly – yet.

A dozen or so AR game developers have now launched an initiative to make Apple allow them to manipulate live video feeds (which they need to in order to run their games). The respective API is currently missing (developers are not allowed to use private APIs under Apple’s publishing guidelines). They threaten to otherwise go to Android. Hmm…

So far, AR games are few and far between and they haven’t really left the scholarly confines of Georgia Tech and other ivory towers, simply because there is no market for them as yet. Many people place their faith for the next big thing in mobile gaming on AR but because the necessary parameters (video feeds eat lots of bandwidth) have not been met, they cannot really capitalize on their wares. Go here for a good overview of the status quo (featuring the Georgia Tech apps and others).

So, is it there yet? I’d like it to but I doubt it: it is not only Apple but – possibly more importantly – the carriers: what do they have to gain if a few people consume a disproportionately high amount of bandwidth to play their games? Very little under the current costing framework of the industry. Little short-term chances I would therefore say… A pity that!